How Much Are Autographs Worth?

Autograph values are determined less by who signed than by whether a buyer can prove it. Authentication is the dominant economic factor in this market, because forgery is endemic and an unauthenticated signature by a famous person is worth a small fraction of a certified one. The major third-party authenticators, PSA/DNA, JSA, and Beckett for sports, are effectively required above a few hundred dollars, and certificates from unknown companies are treated as worthless. Beyond authentication, value depends on the person's historical significance, the scarcity of their signature, the format signed, and the content. A signed letter with meaningful content is worth many times a bare signature on a card. Some famous people signed constantly and their autographs are common; others signed rarely, and a few, including several US presidents, used autopen machines extensively, which produces signatures that look genuine but are worthless. Learning to recognize autopen and secretarial signatures is essential.

Third-party authentication is the largest single variable and effectively gates the market, since uncertified signatures sell at ten to thirty percent of certified equivalents regardless of genuineness. Historical significance of the signer drives the ceiling. Signing frequency matters enormously and is counterintuitive: a hugely famous person who signed constantly may have a cheaper autograph than a less famous person who rarely signed. Format and content create large spreads, with signed letters discussing meaningful subjects worth many times a signature on an index card. Inscription can help or hurt, since a personalized dedication to an unrelated person reduces value while a signature alone is more liquid. Medium and condition matter, and signatures fade, particularly in sunlight and on certain papers. Autopen and secretarial signatures are a specific hazard with politicians and presidents, and identifying them requires comparing to known machine patterns.